United States airlines are bracing for a weaker-than-expected summer season amid decreasing numbers of international visitors to the U.S. and softening demand for domestic flights.
A major part of the problem is how the U.S. is currently being perceived abroad by would-be international tourists. ¡°Perceptions of the U.S. matter,¡± says a recent report from travel data analytics firm Tourism Economics. ¡°Sentiment-headwinds are negatively impacting inbound travel.¡± Those sentiment headwinds include policies and posturing from the Trump administration, like tariffs on well-established trade partners, border security incidents, and national travel advisories, according to Tourism Economics.
As a result, international visitors are expected to significantly decrease this summer and beyond. ¡°We maintain our expectations of a 8.7% decline in U.S. international arrivals for the year overall,¡± says Tourism Economics latest analysis. That estimate is a slight improvement over the firm¡¯s March estimate, which forecasted a total decline of 9.4% in international visitors. Still, analysts are predicting an $8.5 billion drop in international visitor spending¡ªa decrease of 4.7% compared to 2024.
April¡¯s arrival numbers did show some signs of improvement, with non-U.S. citizen air passenger arrivals to the U.S. up by 2.9 percent compared to April 2024, according to recent data from the National Travel and Tourism Office. However, one factor to bear in mind is the timing of Easter, which fell in April this year and occurred in March in 2024, which could be behind the boost in numbers.?
According to the National Travel and Tourism Office¡¯s data, April¡¯s total air passenger arrivals and departures between the U.S. and other countries were led by travelers from Mexico (3.449 million), Canada (2.485 million), the United Kingdom (1.765 million), the Dominican Republic (913,000), and Japan (875,000).
Even though nearly 2.5 million Canadians visited the U.S. in April, the average number of Canadian air passengers traveling to the U.S. is still dropping significantly: Canadian round-trip flights to the U.S. declined in April 2025 by 19.9%, according to Statistics Canada.?
Tourism Economics predicts that the largest declines in international visitors throughout the summer will continue to be led by Canada, with overall visitor numbers slipping by 20.2%, and Western Europe, with international visitors from that region dropping by 5.8% as well.
Looking at the latest booking data, the dearth of international airline passengers seems poised to stretch through the majority of the summer. ¡°Air bookings as of April show continued weakness, as 10.8% fewer flights have been booked to the U.S. for the May to July period than at the same point last year,¡± Tourism Economics' most recent report says.
The decline becomes even steeper when looking at the transatlantic market. According to an analysis of online travel agency booking data by analytics firm Cirium, flight bookings from Europe to the U.S. for travel in June, July, and August have dropped by 12% compared to 2024.
On the domestic side of air travel, airlines are expecting a lower demand from budget travelers who typically book into the economy cabin. ¡°Domestic travel is showing some modest signs of weakening with falling consumer confidence, market volatility, and the threat of inflation,¡± says Adam Sacks, president of Tourism Economics. ¡°This will produce some ¡®trading down¡¯ to lower price points, shorter trips, and will affect lower income households more acutely.¡±
Amid the economic headwinds, some travelers are indeed opting for more affordable trips closer to home. According to a recent MMGY survey, 29% of U.S. travelers say they will change from an international destination to a domestic destination.
Still, U.S. airlines have also trimmed their domestic flight schedules for the summer due to softening demand. United Airlines, for one, said back in April that it would cut its domestic flight schedule by four percent, starting in July. Southwest Airlines similarly said it would be cutting capacity in the second half of the year as well.
The ongoing air traffic control struggles at New Jersey¡¯s Newark Airport have also caused some travelers to rethink their summer flights due to the weeks of extensive delays and cancellations at that important hub. However, the situation appears to be stabilizing, with the FAA setting new caps on how many takeoffs and arrivals airlines are allowed to have per hour.
Newark¡¯s maximum hourly rate will be 28 arrivals and 28 departures until the airport¡¯s runway construction is completed on June 15. Then, the airport will be capped at 34 arrivals and 32 departures per hour until October 25. Those numbers are down from 38 arrivals and 38 departures before the air traffic issues began in April. With those changes, officials believe that Newark¡¯s flight schedule will be reliable through the summer.
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