Canadian and overseas visitation to the United States continues to plummet in response to the Trump Administration¡¯s divisive policies and rhetoric, extending far longer into 2025 then experts had initially expected.

Data published in late August by Tourism Economics shows that visits to the United States from Canada in particular are continuing to collapse: They¡¯ve fallen 25.2 percent year-to-date (YTD), and in July alone, Canadian arrivals by car were down 37 percent year-over-year.

Similarly, hotel occupancy in northern border states is taking a hit amid the Canadian rebuke of the United States. In Maine, for instance, YTD occupancy for 2025 is 53.9 percent versus the higher figure of 57.2 percent for 2024.

Experts have made clear that Canadians have taken the rhetoric and policy announcements from the U.S. administration very personally and are opting to visit other countries in response.

Overseas arrivals, meanwhile, have dropped 1.6 percent YTD. For the month of July, overseas arrivals were down 3.1 percent. The overseas losses are being driven by decreases from Western Europe and Asia, according to Tourism Economics.

¡°Overseas and Canadian visitation to the US [has fallen] well below previously forecasted levels,¡± says the new report. ¡°The downward trend began in February, fueled by geopolitical and policy-related concerns. Paired with harsh rhetoric, these concerns have contributed to unpredictability and negative global travel sentiment toward the US.¡±

Separately, the World Travel & Tourism Council had said in advance of Memorial Day that the United States is the only country among the 184 it studies where foreign visitor spending will decline in 2025. When making the announcement, the association said the data is ¡°a clear indicator that the global appeal of the U.S. is slipping.¡±

Severe ¡®sentiment drag'

The new Tourism Economics report says the United States is experience a ¡°severe sentiment drag.¡± Underscoring that point, last December it was forecasted that the United States would experience an approximate 9 percent increase in overall international arrivals for 2025.

Far from that happening, the United States is instead on track to record an 8.2 percent decline in overseas visits for 2025. In other words, international visits will remain well below pre-pandemic levels.

At the same time, total inbound visitor spending is expected to fall by 4.2 percent, which represents a loss of $8.3 billion.

Additional, discouraging figures include:

• International inbound air bookings are pacing 10 percent to 14 percent below last year from August through October.
• Air bookings from Canada to the US are 35.6 percent to 43 percent lower than this time last year.
• Canadian interest in Mexico is surging¡ªwith bookings for August to October up 11.8 percent to 13.5 percent
  
  

Uptick in Mexican visitors

There is one bright spot in the new Tourism Economics report for the United States. Arrivals from Mexico are outperforming predictions for 2025. There¡¯s been a 13.9 percent YTD growth in this demographic of visitors through May, pacing above forecasts.

Another positive note in the report: Expected reductions in outbound travel by Americans may help boost the domestic travel industry. It seems fewer Americans are planning to travel abroad this year.

Additionally, the weakened dollar has made the U.S. a more affordable destination, though its unclear whether that alone will be enough to overcome negative sentiment toward the country.

And in the meantime, U.S. tourism industry businesses and destinations are feeling the pinch.

¡°The sharp inbound travel slowdown reflects real economic consequences for many U.S. destinations, especially those near the northern border,¡± says the report, which adds that: ¡°Rebuilding sentiment will be key to restoring demand.¡±

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